GS going against the commodity bulls?

Good story over at Metal miner about GS cutting it's trading exposure to commodities. They seem to have done this by cutting their VAR to $27 million and reduced hiring in their commodity department. Think the most interesting thing about this recent run up in commodity prices is the failure of Copper to join in. A weakening USD has failed to re-ignite the rally in copper and many leading commentators believe Copper to be a good indicator of where the commodity prices could be in Q4 i.e stagnant or falling?! Either way My Long Crude oil trade is still paying dividends and I am targeting a exit price of $83 from an entry of $76.2

Mobile Phone troubles

Lost my mobile while on holiday over the weekend. Unfortunately didn't have insurance so now have the headache of scouring ebay for a new phone. Am seeing lots of made in china Nokia 8800 Arte and iPhone's...the chinese really are the masters of forgery !!

Planes, Trains & Automobiles

Got back from a non stop partying weekender in Europe to a dull and dismal UK. Lost my mobile phone on the last night which didn't exactly improve my mood. On landing I discovered trains from Stansted were cancelled and replaced with buses. Once I managed to reach Waterloo, I found out all trains to a certain section of Surrey were also cancelled leaving me to rely on another set of replacement bus services. I truly cannot fathom how much we overpay for public transport and what an under delivery of service we put up with in the UK. So instead of trading today I intend to look at courses to learn Mandarin and routes to emigrate to Canada/Brazil

Holiday

Right I'm off for a quick weekend break. Hope people followed my market advice y/day and made a nice bit of mint for themselves...ciao!!!!!!

Market View

GS earnings out at 12.30 London time. JPM and Intel having driven the Dow over 10k. If GS earnings are as expected or better ( some even saying as high as $6) then I fully expect another leg up in the great rally of 2009. In commodities, Oil seems to have breached it's 200 wk MA of 75.4 and is trading around 75.6. As stated the top of the trading range is the target that needs to be broken for a move up to 79/80 and with the Inventory data due today combined with GS earnings we could have the perfect storm of rising equities, Oil and a falling USD.

Launching a Hedge Fund

Great post over at Clusterstock ( The Business Insider) about how to launch a Hedge Fund

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-launch-a-hedge-fund-2009-10#decide-how-much-you-need-1

Black Gold

I see Crude has just penetrated the 75 dollar level, now I don't expect Oil to rise infinitely. But no one can deny the wall of money out there which has driven asset prices higher and lifted commodity prices by ~ 4%. At the moment I am bearish below 76.2 and the initial move above 75 this morning didn't trigger any stop loss buying, meaning most traders still have faith in the 200 wk MA (75.4). But if the USD continues it's sell off and the top of the trading range gets broken (76.2), well then as a rational investor is my duty to turn and join the wave up. Lets not forget GS q4 forecast of USD 85...The inventory data on thursday should provide more insight on the next few moves

Oil

It greases the wheels of capitalism and the world. So here is my opinion on those looking to trade oil. I see an important level of resistance around 75.4 bucks, which also happens to be the 200 day MA. Personally I believe this will hold and could be a good entry for quick shorts. Though beware a break of 76.2 and the 200 day MA level will be invalidated and it will be time to start playing Oil on the long side towards GS 09 year end estimate

Bargaining

Going for a quick weekend break this coming Friday with some University buddies to Latvia. As it's a quick trip and we are travelling via RYA.L we have to pay a surcharge of 20 pounds on each item of luggage ( On a side not I can see this being the new standard for all short haul flights going forward, if it isn't already). So am sharing a suitcase with a buddy of mine and the bargaining that is going into it is quite remarkable. He is only willing to carry half my luggage stitching me up for the rest, now I am having to allot different items of luggage with different friends

Profit

As stated earlier today EUR/GBP needs to break the key level of 0.9330/40, which it has duly done and is now residing around 0.937. Nice little earner, hope others jumped in to clear some nice mint.

Nassim Taleb

Well if there going to dole out Nobel prizes, at least give it to someone with actual achievements. Can't wait for the man's new book. Him and Russell Brand my ideal dinner guests

http://tinyurl.com/yf9r7dw

Trading Ideas

Not posted for a while, but had a few brainwaves and wanted to put pen to paper

1. I expect EURGBP appreciation med term with this ME oil trading story ( replacement of USD withe EUR) more and more countries using EUR as their reserve ccy and GBP suffering from the effects of QE. Next important technical level seen at 0.9330/40

2. Oil from a technical point of view is at a fascinating juncture. It has in effect been trading sideways for a while now, with the occasional break up or down, but has stayed true to the 67-75 range. Now it seems to have broken the mini downward channel it fell into on the 23rd of Sept. But the question is can it maintain and take another shot at the 74.5-75 resistance level? Well the conventional wisdom seems to be that Oil is being supported by a weak USD or the Iranian Uranium enriching issue. Though if I had to stick my head out I am looking to play this on the short side. So look for an initial break of $72, which would have to be validated by a break of around $71.

3. Am keenly watching the major indices, a good/decent earning season could see us breaking 10000 on the dow ( Crazy considering the real economy is in the toilet ). Personally I'm looking for a move till 10350 (as that represents a 50% re-tracement from the all time high of 14100) before I start loading my shorts.