Food

Feeling poorly after a night out with the likely lads...add the fact this is my 10th day of fasting and not in the greatest of moods. Made a tiny profit on falling WTI today, looking to re-enter short around 70.5.

Anyway off to a family BBQ but not allowed to eat until 7.51pm....

Ideas

Morning folks, its been v choppy out in the markets over the last week. So I just wanted to step back for a few minutes and collect my thoughts and think about the trends I have noticed:

1. Oil has been v volatile and this volatility is feeding into the stk market. Yesterday saw a large bounce/spike in the price of crude, and lo and behold today all indexes are in positive territory. This also has an impact on risk currencies which seem to be taking their queue from the price of Oil. Which means the global economy is moving at the whim of percieved hurricanes in the Atlantic ( Long NHC) and any geopolitical issues in the ME ( Long Israel/Palestine) or in the Niger Delta ( Long Nigerian terrorists). Today I'm looking to play WTI long but best to wait until US data is released at 1.30pm and then the big one at 3pm Uni of Michigan confidence. Last week this really drove markets up, lets see if it can do it again.

2. Japanese election due to take place and opinion polls and commentators believe that the LDP's iron grip of Japan will loosed as the DPJ come into power. The DPJ are more respectful of BoJ independence but are looking to have their men elected onto the governing board. I personally don't think the japanese election results would be -ve for the Yen and will be looking for an entry point into a short USD/JPY trade

Markets

Great post by Doug Kass on Real Money calling the top of the markets. Way back in March he called the bottom of the SPX, now he is calling the top. It's an interesting read

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10590765/1/kass-market-has-likely-topped.html

Markets

After large falls over the last 2 trading days, markets have opened slightly higher, but with the UK inflation data out at 9.30 (GMT) look for action in the currency markets. I expect GBP/USD to re-test yesterday's lows, and head towards the 1.62 region. So here are my trading ideas/musings for 18/8/2009

GBP/USD short @ 1.6260 BoE extending gilt purchases beyond the FED treasury purchases, therefore I expect greater downside for cable, especially as stocks lose ground.

London Sugar No. 5 short @ 5.32- This is a fundamentelly driven market, but doesn't mean we can't take advantage of technical gaps like yesterday's fall below the technical level of 549

Crude Oil - Best to play this by ear. I still expect further falls in the price of this contract, but we must respect the strength and depth of this market and show caution on opening up any new shorts at the moment. So for now I am flat but once this contract hits my signals, I fully expect to dive in

Money

Hope all you out there listened to my ramblings and actually made some mint today. Long Yen, USD and short Oil was a easy money spinner. Next tips for the day...

DJIA - Break of 9232 should see further falls in this index

SPX - 992.3 Anything below this levvel is also worth selling into

Enjoy your wkend all!!!!

Markets

Morning all, The following positions is what I personally believe will happen today in the markets. This is not invetsment advice as such and you should perform your own DD and analysis before entering any position

Oil - Market searching for direction at the moment, am waiting to see whether the channel breaks and we head towards $68 and lower or whether we go and break $73. Personally Im betting on the short side of this trade

GBPUSD - SHORT @ 1.662 from 13/8/09

Yen - Long against CAD, GBP and NZD

London Sugar No. 5 - I personally think 547 and below to be a decent place to enter this trade. The fundamentals of this market are based on the weather in India and Brazil. Once farmers obtain a better harvest we could see a big drop in this overly inflated commodity.

Bund - Bund showing remarkable resistance around the 120 mark any break of that region and it is time to start printing money. I persoanlly believe to see that we need better data out of the ECB and a real sign that the global recovery is on the way which should raise expectation of rates and yields.

Markets

Closed out on my short cable position, only for cable then to plunge to approx 1.65...v frustrating...locked in some nice crude profits on the break from 70.70...lock and load keep firing guys

Markets

Initiated a short GBPUSD trade around the 1.66 region...after yday's FED announcements re: QE cannot see anyway for GBP to continue its rally towards 1.7. We might see an intraday high close to that level but not a close. Just have to hold on to your positions and ride out the storm. Wal-Mart earnings beat estimates so USD and JPY taking an absolute hammering, Sept Crude futures still not anywhere near the highs achieved last month or previously, which is a v interesting indicator in my humble opinion

Hvar - Croatia 2009

Just got back from vacation last night, cannot believe how depressing London can be. While Hvar is filled with beautiful tanned women, warm weather and 10hrs of sunshine London seems to be the exact opposite. Missing the vibe at Hula beach, warm weather, sun slowly setting, beautiful people dancing and drinking....

Panacea for our ills

Ist trading day of the month and the SPX crosses 1000, will it close here? Well thats the big Q. If yes then a big round of applause should go to Uncle Ben ( not the food brand...but Ben Bernanke ) for saving the global economy and placing us and future generations under a massive level of debt.

On the markets -

EUR/USD - broken the upper resistance of 1.428...A close above this level should see further highs

USD/CAD - Broken the lower level support of 1.0784 and 1.0663 intraday. A close below 1.0663 should see another leg down of this pair

NZD/USD - RBNZ don't have the money to interven...good move governor now every barrow boy in the forex market can decide to go long this pair with impunity

WTI - This has been v v v choppy today, getting lower highs and sharper falls...