Monday, 12 October 2009

Trading Ideas

Not posted for a while, but had a few brainwaves and wanted to put pen to paper

1. I expect EURGBP appreciation med term with this ME oil trading story ( replacement of USD withe EUR) more and more countries using EUR as their reserve ccy and GBP suffering from the effects of QE. Next important technical level seen at 0.9330/40

2. Oil from a technical point of view is at a fascinating juncture. It has in effect been trading sideways for a while now, with the occasional break up or down, but has stayed true to the 67-75 range. Now it seems to have broken the mini downward channel it fell into on the 23rd of Sept. But the question is can it maintain and take another shot at the 74.5-75 resistance level? Well the conventional wisdom seems to be that Oil is being supported by a weak USD or the Iranian Uranium enriching issue. Though if I had to stick my head out I am looking to play this on the short side. So look for an initial break of $72, which would have to be validated by a break of around $71.

3. Am keenly watching the major indices, a good/decent earning season could see us breaking 10000 on the dow ( Crazy considering the real economy is in the toilet ). Personally I'm looking for a move till 10350 (as that represents a 50% re-tracement from the all time high of 14100) before I start loading my shorts.

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