Market View

GS earnings out at 12.30 London time. JPM and Intel having driven the Dow over 10k. If GS earnings are as expected or better ( some even saying as high as $6) then I fully expect another leg up in the great rally of 2009. In commodities, Oil seems to have breached it's 200 wk MA of 75.4 and is trading around 75.6. As stated the top of the trading range is the target that needs to be broken for a move up to 79/80 and with the Inventory data due today combined with GS earnings we could have the perfect storm of rising equities, Oil and a falling USD.

Trading Ideas

Not posted for a while, but had a few brainwaves and wanted to put pen to paper

1. I expect EURGBP appreciation med term with this ME oil trading story ( replacement of USD withe EUR) more and more countries using EUR as their reserve ccy and GBP suffering from the effects of QE. Next important technical level seen at 0.9330/40

2. Oil from a technical point of view is at a fascinating juncture. It has in effect been trading sideways for a while now, with the occasional break up or down, but has stayed true to the 67-75 range. Now it seems to have broken the mini downward channel it fell into on the 23rd of Sept. But the question is can it maintain and take another shot at the 74.5-75 resistance level? Well the conventional wisdom seems to be that Oil is being supported by a weak USD or the Iranian Uranium enriching issue. Though if I had to stick my head out I am looking to play this on the short side. So look for an initial break of $72, which would have to be validated by a break of around $71.

3. Am keenly watching the major indices, a good/decent earning season could see us breaking 10000 on the dow ( Crazy considering the real economy is in the toilet ). Personally I'm looking for a move till 10350 (as that represents a 50% re-tracement from the all time high of 14100) before I start loading my shorts.

Markets

Great post by Doug Kass on Real Money calling the top of the markets. Way back in March he called the bottom of the SPX, now he is calling the top. It's an interesting read

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10590765/1/kass-market-has-likely-topped.html

Money

Hope all you out there listened to my ramblings and actually made some mint today. Long Yen, USD and short Oil was a easy money spinner. Next tips for the day...

DJIA - Break of 9232 should see further falls in this index

SPX - 992.3 Anything below this levvel is also worth selling into

Enjoy your wkend all!!!!