Trading Ideas

Not posted for a while, but had a few brainwaves and wanted to put pen to paper

1. I expect EURGBP appreciation med term with this ME oil trading story ( replacement of USD withe EUR) more and more countries using EUR as their reserve ccy and GBP suffering from the effects of QE. Next important technical level seen at 0.9330/40

2. Oil from a technical point of view is at a fascinating juncture. It has in effect been trading sideways for a while now, with the occasional break up or down, but has stayed true to the 67-75 range. Now it seems to have broken the mini downward channel it fell into on the 23rd of Sept. But the question is can it maintain and take another shot at the 74.5-75 resistance level? Well the conventional wisdom seems to be that Oil is being supported by a weak USD or the Iranian Uranium enriching issue. Though if I had to stick my head out I am looking to play this on the short side. So look for an initial break of $72, which would have to be validated by a break of around $71.

3. Am keenly watching the major indices, a good/decent earning season could see us breaking 10000 on the dow ( Crazy considering the real economy is in the toilet ). Personally I'm looking for a move till 10350 (as that represents a 50% re-tracement from the all time high of 14100) before I start loading my shorts.

Blackrock

Blackrock take on Wall St

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0709a7c6-9f02-11de-8013-00144feabdc0.html

"Cohiba Day"

Late last Friday was a "Cohiba day" as coined by Fari Hamzei on his twitter page. Oil finally broke its tight range and plummeted towards 69. As soon as it hit my sell order of 71.4, and fell further I knew this was what all the bears had been waiting for all week long....What followed was definitely worth the wait as CL1 fell off the proverbial cliff

Range

Oil trading within a v tight range. It refuses to break 72.4 and refuses to go below 71...

Irrational Exuberance

Irrational Exubarence....Was the phrase used by Greenspan to describe the frothy nature of markets. Ever since the NFP data came out on fri, markets have been on an absolute tear. $ is getting absoluetely battered acrosss the globe and Oil has breached $72. Guess the G20 meeting over the weekend has helped place the rocket up this markets backside. Looks like my prediction of Sept 9-13 as the turning point of this market could be off by a few days.

Training - Mentoring

Been spending the last few days training my cousin to trade derivatives through a spreadbetting provider. I never realised how much fun it is watching someone else take their first few steps within the game. Over the last few days she made a return 22.5% on her original investment, which is impressive. The next step is to teach her the golden rules of money management and to sustain her success. Anyway I'm off to a friends wedding lets hope for plenty wine, women and song...until next time ciao!!

Food

Still feeling v poorly, but soldiering on and fasting nonetheless. Think might have to take a break tmrw and rest up. On a trading perspective, there was some v nice mint to be made when WTI breached 69.3. But it seems to have now formed another base around the 68.6/7 level.

US Non Farm Payrolls out on Friday and that should provide further impetus to the bears. I believethis friday could be the start of the big market contraction that will take place b/ween Sept 9-13.