Market View

GS earnings out at 12.30 London time. JPM and Intel having driven the Dow over 10k. If GS earnings are as expected or better ( some even saying as high as $6) then I fully expect another leg up in the great rally of 2009. In commodities, Oil seems to have breached it's 200 wk MA of 75.4 and is trading around 75.6. As stated the top of the trading range is the target that needs to be broken for a move up to 79/80 and with the Inventory data due today combined with GS earnings we could have the perfect storm of rising equities, Oil and a falling USD.

Launching a Hedge Fund

Great post over at Clusterstock ( The Business Insider) about how to launch a Hedge Fund

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-launch-a-hedge-fund-2009-10#decide-how-much-you-need-1

Black Gold

I see Crude has just penetrated the 75 dollar level, now I don't expect Oil to rise infinitely. But no one can deny the wall of money out there which has driven asset prices higher and lifted commodity prices by ~ 4%. At the moment I am bearish below 76.2 and the initial move above 75 this morning didn't trigger any stop loss buying, meaning most traders still have faith in the 200 wk MA (75.4). But if the USD continues it's sell off and the top of the trading range gets broken (76.2), well then as a rational investor is my duty to turn and join the wave up. Lets not forget GS q4 forecast of USD 85...The inventory data on thursday should provide more insight on the next few moves

Oil

It greases the wheels of capitalism and the world. So here is my opinion on those looking to trade oil. I see an important level of resistance around 75.4 bucks, which also happens to be the 200 day MA. Personally I believe this will hold and could be a good entry for quick shorts. Though beware a break of 76.2 and the 200 day MA level will be invalidated and it will be time to start playing Oil on the long side towards GS 09 year end estimate

Bargaining

Going for a quick weekend break this coming Friday with some University buddies to Latvia. As it's a quick trip and we are travelling via RYA.L we have to pay a surcharge of 20 pounds on each item of luggage ( On a side not I can see this being the new standard for all short haul flights going forward, if it isn't already). So am sharing a suitcase with a buddy of mine and the bargaining that is going into it is quite remarkable. He is only willing to carry half my luggage stitching me up for the rest, now I am having to allot different items of luggage with different friends

Profit

As stated earlier today EUR/GBP needs to break the key level of 0.9330/40, which it has duly done and is now residing around 0.937. Nice little earner, hope others jumped in to clear some nice mint.

Nassim Taleb

Well if there going to dole out Nobel prizes, at least give it to someone with actual achievements. Can't wait for the man's new book. Him and Russell Brand my ideal dinner guests

http://tinyurl.com/yf9r7dw